The Manila Times : 'Voters unlikely to change candidates'

18 April 2022

By Kaithreen Cruz | The Manila Times

A MAJORITY of respondents in the recent Publicus survey said that they were unlikely to change their choice for president in the upcoming elections.

Seventy-seven percent of the respondents said that they will "definitely not" (64 percent) or "likely not" (13 percent) change their choice of president, while 16 percent said that they were "50-50" on whether or not they would change their preferred bet.

Only one percent of respondents said that they will "likely" change their choice for the presidential race.

The pollster said that this indicated a strong vote firmness against the possibility of switching allegiance to another candidate.

"Voters who say they would definitely not change or likely not change their vote are considered 'firm voters' who form the floor of a candidate's support. In other words, the proportion of firm voters indicates the candidate's hardcore base of support that is unlikely to be swayed or converted by other candidates," Publicus Executive Director Aureli Sinsuat said. The pollster added that presidential candidate Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. notched the largest proportion of firm voters in their survey, with 88 percent of those who indicated that they intend to vote for Marcos will "definitely not" or "likely not" change their vote.

"After multiplying the percentage of firm voters by their overall vote share on the March 30 to April 6 survey, we estimate Marcos' floor of support for the presidency to be approximately 49 percent of the entire sample, while [Vice President Maria Leonor 'Leni'] Robredo's floor of support is around 18 percent," Sinsuat said.

He added that these figures portray an unfavorable situation for candidates to catch up with Marcos, especially in terms of vote firmness with just little room left for other candidates to convert the number of voters needed to come out ahead on election day.

He noted that vote firmness was stronger in the vice presidential race, with 81 percent of respondents indicating that they will definitely not or likely not change their vote. Publicus surveyed 1,500 respondents from March 30 to April 6. The respondents were randomly drawn from a market research panel of Purespectrum with over 200,000 Filipinos.

The survey has a ±3 percent margin of error.