The Manila Times : To whom they are strong: Demographic profile of potential candidates' voter base

News & Interviews
8 July 2021

By Antonio Contreras | The Manila Times

Fourth of a series

WHEN DigiVoice launched PINASurvey, we had the intention of ensuring that we would focus not only on the candidates but also on the voters. Surveys should not be read as crystal balls or tea leaves that we can use to bet on the winning candidate, but more as a tool for candidates to know their strengths and weaknesses.

Results of the PINASurvey reveal interesting insights into the demographic profile of the voter base of the 15 potential candidates that we have included in the survey, as these inform them as to whom they are strong.

The survey results reveal, as shown in Table 1, that 58.1 percent of female voters would vote for Manila City Mayor Francisco "Isko Moreno" Domagoso, making him the most preferred candidate by women, while 47.7 percent of male voters constitute former senator Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.'s voter base, making him the most preferred candidate by men. Other candidates that are relatively stronger to female voters within their voter bases are Pasig City Mayor Victor "Vico" Sotto, Sen. Mary Grace Poe and Vice President Maria Leonor "Leni" Robredo.

What is surprising is that within his own voter base, Sen. Emmanuel "Manny" Pacquiao is also stronger among his female voters. On the other hand, and aside from Marcos, the other potential candidates who are relatively stronger to male voters within their voter bases are Davao City Mayor Sara "Inday" Duterte-Carpio, President Rodrigo "Digong" Duterte, Sen. Christopher Lawrence "Bong" Go, Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano, former senator Antonio "Sonny" Trillanes 4th, and Senators Panfilo "Ping" Lacson and Richard "Dick" Gordon. Also strong to men within their voter bases are former defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro and retired Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio.

Domagoso takes the highest support in all age groups, as shown in Table 1. The other candidates who are relatively stronger among people aged 45 and above within their voter bases are Marcos, Go, Teodoro, Lacson, Gordon and Carpio, while those that are relatively stronger in younger voters aged 18 to 29 within their voter bases are Pacquiao, Poe, Robredo, Cayetano and Trillanes. Sotto, Duterte-Carpio and Duterte are the candidates who are relatively stronger in the mid-range ages from 30 to 44 within their voter bases.

Table 2 shows that except for income class C1, Domagoso again is the most preferred potential candidate by his voter base in all the other income classes. It is Duterte-Carpio who is the most preferred by her voters in the said income class. Most of the candidates draw their relative strength within their voter bases in the highest income class of AB. These include Robredo, Cayetano, Trillanes, Teodoro, Lacson, Gordon and Carpio. On the other hand, Marcos and Go are also relatively strong in their voters in the C1 class, while Pacquiao and Poe are strong in the D class.

Table 2 also shows that Domagoso is also the most preferred potential candidate in his voter base from both the urban and sub-urban areas. The other candidates that are relatively stronger in urban areas within their voter bases are Sotto, Duterte-Carpio, Duterte, Pacquiao, Robredo, Teodoro, Lacson and Gordon, while those that are relatively stronger in sub-urban areas are Marcos, Go, Poe, Cayetano, Trillanes and Carpio.

As expected, and as shown in Table 3, Duterte-Carpio is the most preferred candidate in Mindanao, where 50.2 percent would vote for her in any position. Sotto, on the other hand, is the most preferred in Central Luzon, with a slight lead over Domagoso, 58.9 percent to 58.3 percent. But it is Domagoso who dominates all other regions, including NCR and Southern Luzon, and even the Visayas. What is unexpected, however, is that the solid north appears to be no longer as solid for the Marcoses, as results reveal that Domagoso edges out Marcos, who while still getting the highest percentage of his voter base from Northern Luzon at 54.0 percent, is nevertheless edged out by Domagoso who obtained a higher support of 59.1 percent of the voters from that geographical area.

Completing the top five in NCR are Sotto, Pacquiao, Duterte-Carpio and Marcos and Duterte in a tie; in Northern Luzon are Duterte-Carpio, Duterte and Sotto; in Central Luzon are Duterte-Carpio, Marcos and Pacquiao; in Southern Luzon are Pacquiao, Marcos and Duterte; in Visayas are Duterte-Carpio, Marcos, Sotto and Duterte in a tie and Pacquiao; and in Mindanao are Domagoso, Marcos and Pacquiao.

Within their voter bases, Domagoso is strongest in NCR. Sotto, who has the highest support among all voters in Central Luzon has the highest support within his voter base in Southern Luzon. The other candidates who are relatively stronger within their voter bases in Southern Luzon are Poe, Robredo and Trillanes. Pacquiao is relatively stronger within his voter base in Metro Manila. Aside from Sotto, Carpio is also relatively stronger within his voter base in Central Luzon. And the candidates who are all relatively stronger within their voter bases in Mindanao, aside from Duterte-Carpio, are Duterte, Go, Cayetano, Teodoro, Lacson and Gordon.

On Saturday, we will do an in-depth analysis of the opinion of voters on burning issues that divide the country, and what its implications are for their voter preferences.