By Rigoberto Tiglao | The Manila Times
DATA from the low key but highly reliable pollster Laylo Associates indicate that the Marcoses' so-called Solid North (the Ilokano-speaking provinces) and the relatively new "Solid South" (the Dutertes' Northern Mindanao and Davao provinces) are even more solid in delivering votes than in 2016.
According to the Laylo poll (undertaken end-November and with 3,000 respondents), 92 to 97 percent of the Ilocos, Cordillera and Cagayan Valley will be voting for Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. This is markedly bigger than the 65 percent to 75 percent of votes in these provinces that Marcos got in the 2016 vice presidential elections
These North and South regions will most likely deliver an avalanche of votes for both Marcos and his running mate, Sara Duterte-Carpio, to make the opposition candidate Leni Robredo the worst-performing candidate in our Republic's history. At least according to the Laylo November poll, she would be getting only 12 percent of votes; even worse than Jose de Venecia's 16 percent in 1998, the record holder as the biggest loser so far.
It would be the last nail on the coffin of this Yellow Plague that has afflicted us since 1986.
It could be even worse than 12 percent. With all polls confirming Bongbong to have a wide lead over Robredo, campaign financiers would be crazy to throw money at a loser. The funds trickling into Robredo's coffers would even be reduced as her fundraisers skim off the contributions, as they see their candidate losing anyway, and they wouldn't care if she finds out. Maybe Robredo herself would likely, realistically, stash away some of the contributions to ensure herself a comfortable retirement. Not too many potential contributors, I bet, will be returning Robredo's calls.
Already, Robredo's noisiest cheerleader Albert del Rosario, sources said, has vanished after he was given the results of the Social Weather Stations October poll which showed Marcos getting 47 percent of votes as against Robredo's 18 percent. That nutty group who first endorsed Robredo as its candidate, 1Sambayan, can't even meet as no one is willing to pick up the bill for the lunch. Sources claimed that Robredo frowned her frown when she was told that Maria Ressa declined her plea to contribute to her campaign funds from her P25-million Nobel cash prize.
What is surprising about Laylo's poll is that even the National Capital Region — traditionally very much pro-opposition and where the Pink-dominated media has its dominion — will go for Marcos, with 61 percent of ivoters backing him. Only 12 percent in that region chose Robredo. She can count only on one single region — her home region Bicol, with 70 percent going for her. Even Western Visayas, the Liberal Party's traditional turf, gives Marcos 36 percent of its vote, bigger than Robredo's 27 percent.
If Marcos' trajectory continues, he will be the second president elected by a majority of votes in our post-EDSA history. I would think that would be good to unite this country that the Yellows have divided.
Words of wisdom from Facebook
Despite its many serious flaws — its confirmation-bias algorithm among others — I'm still a believer in it since I encounter once in a while brilliant writing there from non-journalists, whose work is even better than by those who have been writing columns for years. Here's one from Krizette Laureta Chu, who describes herself as the "CEO at Second Chances PH."
Reasons the 2022 elections is the most important one for the opposition and why they're going to give it their all (and why many — not all — Kakampinks can't help but be toxic):
1. A Bongbong Marcos (BBM) win — not just a win but a sweep — will cement that Leni's VP win was a fraud. Not only will she lose 2022, she will lose 2016, despite what the courts have said. History will be rewritten. This is very painful for the LP and their followers.
2. Opposition will be all but obliterated. In 2016, they lost the presidency but squeezed in the vice presidency, still ok because of the many party mates in Congress and Senate — after all they were admin candidates. 2019 they spectacularly lost all Senate seats and many of their party mates jumped ship to PDP-Laban. In 2019, LP became a shell of what it once was. In 2022 key LP players moved to Isko after they lost faith in Leni's chairmanship and leadership. If they lose this election, on Leni's watch, the once powerful LP crumbles to fine dust. The party that once was the most powerful, most holy, most righteous and most decent, will cease to exist.
Yes, Leni's supporters will say this is about values and morality — it's not. She is surrounded, supported and controlled by the same people who brought us the Aquino admin, and her Senate slate is composed of an alleged drug lord queen and a former vice president whose family has been charged with graft and corruption; whose son cannot run for office again because of corruption issues; a mutineer/soldier who has never seen active duty in his life…
What values are they talking about?
The fight isn't really about values or morality because this is politics, hello.
[The elections of] 2022 is important to all sides because of the usual reasons, but also because both are intensely fighting to become the one who claims and occupies the right side of history.