The Manila Times : Marcos keeps lead in mid-April survey

26 April 2022

By Kaithreen Cruz | The Manila Times

(UPDATE) PRESIDENTIAL candidate Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. maintained his lead in the April 19 to 21 survey of PUBLiCUS Asia.

Marcos got a preferential rating of 57 percent, 1 percent higher than the result of the March 30 to April 6 poll. The increase may not be statistically significant because of the survey's margin of error.

Across geographic areas, his lead was highest in Mindanao at 57 percent, followed by Northern and Central Luzon at 62 percent, the Visayas with 57 percent, Southern Luzon at 45 percent and the National Capital Region (NCR) at 44 percent.

Vice President Maria Leonor "Leni" Robredo placed second with 21 percent, followed by Manila Mayor Francisco "Isko Moreno" Domagoso (6 percent), Sen. Panfilo "Ping" Lacson (4 percent), Sen. Emmanuel "Manny" Pacqiuao (2 percent) and former Malacañang spokesman Ernesto Abella (1 percent).

Robredo was the choice of 32 percent of respondents from NCR, 30 percent in Southern Luzon, 19 percent in the Visayas, 17 percent in Northern and Central Luzon, and 9 percent in Mindanao.

PUBLiCUS noted that Marcos has massive leads over Robredo in Northern and Central Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. He leads Robredo in Southern Luzon, but with a narrower margin. The two are statistically tied in NCR given the in-group margin of error.

The survey also showed that if Robredo withdraws from the presidential race, her supporters would be split between labor leader Leodegario "Ka Leody" de Guzman, Domagoso and Lacson. If Domagoso withdraws, the bulk of his supporters will switch to Lacson as some remainder will split between Robredo and Marcos.

Six percent of the respondents have yet to choose their presidential candidate.

Marcos' running mate, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, also kept her lead in the vice presidential race with a preference rating of 59 percent.

She was supported by 80 percent of respondents in Mindanao, 60 percent in Northern and Central Luzon, as well as the Visayas, 44 percent in Southern Luzon and 41 percent in NCR.

Trailing her were Sen. Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan with 15 percent; Senate President Vicente "Tito" Sotto 3rd, 9 percent; Dr. Willie Ong, 8 percent; and Buhay party-list Rep. Jose "Lito" Atienza, 1 percent.

Similarly, 6 percent of the respondents were undecided about their vice presidential candidate.

PUBLiCUS also noted that Pangilinan and Duterte-Carpio statistically tied in NCR due to the group sample size and margin of error, as Pangilinan received support from 25 percent of respondents.

If Pangilinan withdraws from the vice presidential race, 44 percent of his supporters will be split between Ong and Sotto, while if Sotto withdraws, Pangilinan will gain a quarter of Sotto supporters but Duterte-Carpio will receive 30 percent of his supporters.

If Ong withdraws, the bulk of his voters will be split between Duterte-Carpio, Sotto and Pangilinan.

"The withdrawal of one or two of the lagging candidates would thus not alter the current calculus of voter preference," PUBLiCUS said.

Marcos and Duterte-Carpio were also leaning across socioeconomic classes ABC (50 and 52 percent, respectively), D (60 and 62 percent, respectively) and E (73 and 72 percent, respectively).

Vote firmness for Marcos was at 89 percent and 93 percent for Duterte-Carpio. This signified that almost all of their supporters were "definitely not" or "not likely" to shift their support to another candidate.

PUBLiCUS surveyed 1,500 respondents through purposive sampling randomly drawn from the market research panel of PureSpectrum of over 200,000 Filipinos.

Results of the survey have a ±3 percent margin of error for nationwide results, ±7 percent in NCR and ±6 in other regional groups.

The Manila Times is the media partner of PUBLiCUS Asia.