The Manila Times : Bongbong leads in 4-way fight

4 October 2021

By Bienvenido C. Gonzalez | The Manila Times

For the first time, Pulse Asia introduced a question on the respondent's second choice if his first choice was not running for the elective position for whatever reason. Being an international financial analyst, I saw great value in this as it allows what used to be the snapshot for a specific period during the actual survey to become a movie of changes in real time, at least until the next quarterly survey.

As the filing of certificates of candidacy (CoCs) ends on October 8, and the substitutions of some CoCs will be finalized by November 15, those in contention and their respective campaign managers/team must have a dynamic tool for reassessing each and every change in the political landscape. From the survey's point of view, between October 1 to May 9, there are two more quarterly surveys plus possibly one other survey for the month of April.

I found it fit and timely therefore to develop an Excel template which can be updated at a minimum on October 9, November 16 and after the releases of the scheduled surveys mentioned above. Before giving you my first update as of October 2, I would like to share the methodology used in the process:

a) First, convert Pulse Asia's report which are all in percentage into votes.

b) Second, identify those who should be excluded from the long list of candidates based on developments before the cutoff time and date.

c) Total the number of votes which should be redistributed to the new short list.

d) Determine which persons/votes should be considered as one, for example Duterte/Go.