The Manila Times : BBM, Sara still lead in campaign's final turn

By Kaithreen Cruz | The Manila Times

(UPDATED) WITH the campaign period winding down, the UniTeam partnership of Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte-Carpio maintained its lead in the final PUBLiCUS survey.

Marcos racked up 54 percent to lead all presidential bets in the May 2 to 5 poll. Duterte-Carpio was also the runaway leader in the vice presidential race with 59 percent.

In the seven surveys that PUBLiCUS conducted beginning October 2021, Marcos consistently posted wide winning margins, ranging from 49 percent to 57 percent.

"While the preference share of Marcos Jr. dipped from a peak of 57 percent during the third week of April to 54 percent in the first week of May, it is of note that his current mark is in line with his longer-term average," PUBLiCUS said.

Marcos' closest rival, Vice President Maria Leonor "Leni" Robredo, notched 22 percent in the latest survey, with her voter preference share from October 2021 swinging between 20 percent and 23 percent.

Manila Mayor Francisco "Isko Moreno" Domagoso had 8 percent in the recent survey, Sen. Panfilo "Ping" Lacson 4 percent, Sen. Emmanuel "Manny" Pacquaio 2 percent, and former Malacañang spokesman Ernesto Abella 1 percent.

Six percent of the respondents were still undecided who to vote for on Monday.

Marcos was the top pick in Northern and Central Luzon (NCL) with 63 percent. He had 43 percent in Southern Luzon (SL), 49 percent in the Visayas, and 69 percent in Mindanao.

Robredo and Marcos were statistically tied in the National Region (NCR) at 42 and 37 percent, respectively.

Across socioeconomic classes, Marcos was also the top pick in classes ABC, D, and E at 47, 58, and 65 percent, respectively.

The survey showed that 90 percent of those who expressed support for Marcos also said they were "not likely" or "definitely not" going to change their choice.

Duterte-Carpio has also been leading in the PUBLiCUS surveys since December 2021, with her voter share preference ranging from 54 to 59 percent.

She was not part of the initial survey in October since she registered as a substitute candidate for the Lakas ng Tao-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-CMD) party.

Sen. Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan was in second place with 16 percent, with his overall preference ranging from 10 to 16 percent.

Senate President Vicente "Tito" Sotto 3rd and Dr. Willie Ong are in a tie at 9 percent, and Buhay party-list Rep. Jose "Lito" Atienza had 1 percent.

Four percent of the respondents said they were still undecided who to vote for as vice president.

Duterte-Carpio led in the subnational areas of NCL at 63 percent, 45 percent in Southern Luzon, 55 percent in the Visayas, and 79 percent in Mindanao.

She statistically tied with Pangilinan in NCR, rating 42 percent to Pangilinan's 30 percent.

Duterte-Carpio also dominated across socioeconomic classes ABC at 51 percent, D at 63 percent, and E at 69 percent.

PUBLiCUS said 94 percent of those who are for Duterte-Carpio said that they were "not likely" or "definitely not" going to change their choice.

In the senatorial race, PUBLiCUS noted that the 1st to 7th places are considered "safe spots," with the candidates occupying the slots getting around 35 percent preference share.

They are Sorsogon Gov. Francis "Chiz" Escudero (46.20 percent), Sen. Sherwin "Win" Gatchalian (42.20 percent), Antique Rep, Loren Legarda (42.40 percent), Taguig Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano (40.20 percent), broadcaster Raffy Tulfo (38.80 percent), former Public Works and Highways secretary Mark Villar (35.47 percent), and actor Robin Padilla (34.67 percent).

In the so-called competitive zone are Sen. Ana Theresia "Risa" Hontiveros (31.07 percent), Sen. Juan Miguel "Migz" Zubiri (30.87 percent), former Quezon City mayor Herbert "Bistek" Bautista (29.53 percent), former Defense chief Gilbert Teodoro Jr. (28.53 percent), lawyer Jose Manuel "Chel" Diokno (27.33 percent), former senator Joseph Victor "JV" Ejercito (25.93 percent), Sen. Emmanuel Joel Villanueva (25.73 percent), lawyer Lorenzo "Larry" Gadon (25.33 percent), and former Palace spokesman Herminio "Harry" Roque Jr. (25.33 percent).

"Given the demographic statistics of the sample, a strong argument can be made that [former vice president Jejomar 'Jojo'] Binay and [former senator Jose 'Jinggoy'] Estrada are within the competitive zone given that they are expected to poll well among those in classes D and E on May 9," PUBLiCUS said.

Seven party-lists were able to get at least 2 percent of support from respondents, which is the threshold to secure at least one House seat.

The groups are ACT-CIS (6 percent), Kabayan (3 percent), Ako Bicol (2.7 percent), United Senior Citizen (2.4 percent), Duterte Youth (2.3 percent), Gabriela (2.2 percent), and Ako OFW (2 percent).

PUBLiCUS surveyed 1,500 respondents randomly drawn from the market research panel of PureSpectrum of over 200,000 Filipinos. The final survey panel was restricted to registered voters.

The survey has a ±3 percent margin of error for nationwide results.

The Manila Times is the media partner of PUBLiCUS.