The Manila Times : BBM, Sara again rule 2 surveys

19 April 2022

By Franco Jose C. Baroña | The Manila Times

PRESIDENTIAL candidate Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. and his vice-presidential partner Sara Duterte-Carpio maintained their leads in the latest surveys of OCTA Research and PUBLiCUS Asia.

The OCTA survey, conducted from April 2 to 6, had Marcos, the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas standard-bearer, as the preferred candidate of 57 percent of the 1,200 respondents.

The rating was higher than the 55 percent he received in OCTA's February poll.

Broken down by region, Marcos got 35 percent in the National Capital Region (NCR), 66 percent in the rest of Luzon, 56 percent in the Visayas and 50 percent in Mindanao.

In terms of socioeconomic class, he got 51 percent in the ABC segment, 59 percent in Class D and 44 percent in Class E.

Vice President Maria Leonor "Leni" Robredo posted the biggest increase among the presidential aspirants with 22 percent, a 7-percentage-point jump from her rating in February.

Robredo had 35 percent in the NCR, 21 percent in the rest of Luzon, 23 percent in the Visayas and 23 percent in Mindanao.

She logged 28 percent in Class ABC, 20 percent in Class D and 33 percent in Class E.

Manila Mayor Francisco "Isko Moreno" Domagoso had 9 percent (from 11 percent in February); Sen. Emmanuel "Manny" Pacquiao, 7 percent (from 10 percent); and Sen. Panfilo "Ping" Lacson with 4 percent (from 3 percent).

Former presidential spokesman Ernesto "Ernie" Abella had 1 percent; businessman Faisal Mangondato and labor leader Leodegario "Ka Leody" de Guzman with 0.1 percent each; and former Defense chief Norberto Gonzales, 0.001 percent.

OCTA said 1 percent of the respondents did not indicate their presidential choice. This includes the 0.5 percent who said they have not decided who to vote for, and the 0.008 percent who said they did not have a preference.

Duterte-Carpio garnered 57 percent to stay ahead in the vice-presidential race.

Senate President Vicente "Tito" Sotto 3rd had 23 percent; Sen. Francis Pangilinan, 12 percent; Dr. Willie Ong, 7 percent; House Deputy Speaker Jose "Lito" Atienza, 0.7 percent; and Emmanuel "Manny" Lopez, 0.1 percent.

The survey has a ±3 percent margin of error.

In the PUBLiCUS Asia poll, which was confined to Metro Manila, Marcos was the choice of 51.6 percent of 1,625 respondents in the poll firm's April 8 to 13 survey.

Robredo came in second with 24.3 percent, followed by Domagoso with 9.8 percent.

Lacson had 4.2 percent; Pacquiao, 1.8 percent; de Guzman, 1 percent; Abella, 0.9 percent; and Gonzales, 0.1 percent.

A total of 5.7 percent of the respondents said they have not decided who to vote for.

Duterte-Carpio led the vice-presidential field with 51.3 percent, followed by Pangilinan (15.4 percent), Sotto (11.6 percent), Ong (11.4 percent), Atienza (1.4 percent) and Walden Bello (0.9 percent).

PUBLiCUS noted that vote firmness was also markedly high in both the presidential and vice-presidential categories, with most supporters of leading candidates reporting they were unlikely to change their vote.

Robredo had the highest proportion of firm voters among presidential candidates, with 87 percent of the 24.3 percent of respondents saying they were sticking by her as their choice.

PUBLiCUS said 86 percent among the 51.6 percent of respondents who chose Marcos said their vote will definitely or likely not change.

Sixty-eight percent of Domagoso's supporters were also considered as firm voters.

Duterte-Carpio had the highest firm voter share among the vice-presidential candidates, with 90 percent of her supporters saying they will definitely or likely not change their vote.

Pangilinan, Sotto and Ong had firm voter shares of 84 percent, 77 percent and 69 percent, respectively.

PUBLiCUS Executive Director Aureli Sinsuat said the vote firmness numbers in NCR appear to validate the general trend illustrated by their national data that a large majority of voters have made up their mind on whom to vote for president and vice president.

The survey sample was drawn from a market research maintained by PureSpectrum, a US-based panel marketplace with multinational presence.

PUBLiCUS said the final survey research panel was restricted to registered voters. Respondent age and gender were utilized in the sampling to make the result conform more closely to the features of the voting population, as defined by statistics from the Commission on Elections.

A total of 100 respondents were taken from each of the cities in the NCR, except San Juan with 76 samples and the lone municipality of Pateros with 49 respondents.

Minor adjustments were made in the sampling in Pateros and San Juan given its smaller representation in the panel marketplace of PureSpectrum.

The Manila Times is the media partner of PUBLiCUS Asia.