WITH less than three months before the May 9 elections, the presidential race, practically, could all be over and that victory might prove already a walk in the park to candidate Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr., according to an analysis by information and statistical data provider SPLAT Communications.
The data firm went further by declaring that the only way that his opponents could stop his triumph, albeit still not guaranteed, is if they would pool all their resources together and decide to pit him with just one candidate aided with good old election cheatings.
According to the latest uploaded Pulso ng Pilipinas presentation, there may not be enough time for Leni Robredo, who landed in second place with her 9.8 percent, to gain sufficient votes to beat Marcos, who got an astonishing 60 percent preference vote in the series of Kalye Surveys conducted from January 1 to 31.
“What is clear from all of these is that other candidates simply have no more time to catch up with BBM. VP Leni, a far second, needs around 250,000 votes every day just to tie up with BBM in the next 83 days,” the narrative from the presentation uploaded on February 15 said.
SPLAT Communications, which is working jointly with consulting firm Simplified Strategic Solutions (SSS), came up with the Pulso ng Pilipinas, a compilation and summation of all Kalye Surveys results to keep the public informed.
Venturing further, SPLAT Communications came out last month with vote estimations based on the Kalye Survey results to give a clear picture of the statistical data obtained.
On Tuesday, SPLAT made a comparative analysis of Kalye Surveys and the more formal surveys conducted by SWS, Pulse Asia, Laylo Research, and RMN-APCORE from January 1 to 31 and presented a scientific integration of data.
“Bakit mahalaga ang pagkukumpara? Atin po itong ginagawa sapagkat marami ang nagsasabi na ang Kalye Survey at ang summaries natin ay peke. Nais nating patunayan na ang datos na nakakalap ng scientific surveys ay walang pagkakaiba sa datos na ating nakakalap,” SPLAT explained.
“Kailangan natin itong gawin upang makita natin ng lubusan ang kabuluhan ng Kalye Survey Summary na ating inilalathala para sa kaalaman ng lahat,” SPLAT continued.
According to their comparative analysis of Kalye Surveys, RMN-APCORE, Laylo Research, SWS, and Pulse Asia, the average percentages of the following presidential candidates are as follows: Marcos, 58.2 percent; Robredo, 15.6 percent; Isko Moreno, 9.2 percent; Manny Pacquiao, 7.3 percent and Panfilo Lacson, 3.9 percent. Undecided is at 5.5 percent.
On the other hand, in a separate analysis of the RMN-APCORE, SWS, and Pulse Asia, which all had 2,400 respondents each, the averages were: Marcos, 55.6 percent; Robredo, 17.4 percent; Moreno, 10.2 percent; Pacquiao, 7.8 percent; and Lacson, 4.3 percent. Undecided is at 4.3 percent.
Based on the data, SPLAT said the second placer would still not overtake Marcos, even if she got all the 4.3 percent undecided voters and got the three other candidates to withdraw in her favor and gain their total percentages and add them to her own 17.4 percent.
“Her total would be 44 percent, and even that is still not enough! BBM should lose 7% of his voters, and that 7% should be transferred only to VP Leni. Unless there is a BBM voter erosion, Leni would never win this election,” SPLAT stressed.
9.8% NI LENI SA KALYE SURVEY NUNG ENERO WALANG PUWANG MANALO SA 60% NI BBM, AYON SA SPLAT COMM
KULANG sa tatlong buwan na lamang bago ang inaabangang May 9 elections at patuloy na lumiliit ang tsansa ni Leni Robredo para talunin ang nangungunang presidential candidate na si Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr., base na rin sa analysis ng ‘information and statistical data’ na inilabas ng SPLAT Communications.
Lumilitaw din sa ipinalabas na data na kahit magbuhos ng anumang resources, mahihirapan nang habulin si Marcos maliban na lang kung dadayain ito nang husto, pabor sa iisang kandidato.
Sa presentasyon ng Pulso ng Pilipinas, kukulangin na sa oras si Robredo na kung hindi man nasa ikalawa at ikatlong puwesto ay palagiang 9.8 porsyento na lamang ang nakukuha nito, lubhang napakalayo sa 60 porsyento na preference votes na nakukuha ni Marcos, tulad ng pinakabagong resulta ng Kalye Survey kung saan ay may 60 porsyento itong boto.
Ang pinaka-latest na Kalye Survey ay isinagawa nito lamang January 1 hanggang 31.
“What is clear from all of these is that other candidates simply have no more time to catch up with BBM. VP Leni, a far second, needs around 250,000 votes every day just to tie up with BBM in the next 83 days,” anang ulat na ipinalabas ng SPLAT Communications nito lamang Pebrero 15.
Ang SPLAT Communications ay masinsinang nakipag-ugnayan sa consulting firm na Simplified Strategic Solutions (SSS) dahilan upang ipalabas ang ‘complitation and summation’ ng kabuuang Kalye Survey results upang ipabatid sa publiko ang ‘compilation and summation’ ng Pulso ng Pilipinas.
Nitong nakalipas na buwan ay naglabas din ng kahalintulad na pagtaya ang SPLAT Communications base sa resulta ng Kalye Survey upang maipakita ang tunay na larawan at statistical data na kanilang nakukuha.
Nitong nakalipas na Martes, naglabas ng comparative analysis ng Kalye Survey ang SPLAT na halos iisa ang resulta mula sa SWS, Pulse Asia, Laylo Research, at RMN-APCORE mula Enero 1 hanggang 31.
“Bakit mahalaga ang pagkukumpara? Atin po itong ginagawa sapagkat marami ang nagsasabi na ang Kalye Survey at ang summaries natin ay peke. Nais nating patunayan na ang datos na nakakalap ng scientific surveys ay walang pagkakaiba sa datos na ating nakakalap,” paliwanag ng SPLAT.
“Kailangan natin itong gawin upang makita natin ng lubusan ang kabuluhan ng Kalye Survey Summary na ating inilalathala para sa kaalaman ng lahat,” dagdag pa ng SPLAT.
Base sa ‘comparative analysis’ ng Kalye Surveys, RMN-APCORE, Laylo Research, SWS, at Pulse Asia, ang average percentages ng mga sumusunod na presidential candidates ay: Marcos, 58.2 porsyento; Robredo, 15.6 porsyento; Isko Moreno, 9.2 porsyento; Manny Pacquiao, 7.3 porsyento and Panfilo Lacson, 3.9 porsyento.
Ang undecided ay 5.5 porsyento.
Sa kabilang dako, sa hiwalay na pagtaya ng RMN-APCORE, SWS, at Pulse Asia, na may 2,400 respondents bawat isa, ang average na puntos ay: Marcos, 55.6 porsyento; Robredo, 17.4 porsyento; Moreno, 10.2 porsyento; Pacquiao, 7.8 porsyento; at Lacson, 4.3 porsyento.
Ang undecided ay 4.3 porsyento.
Base sa datos pa ng SPLAT, si Robredo ay hindi pa rin makadidikit man lang kay Marcos, kahit na makuha pa nito ang kabuuang boto ng ilang kapwa presidentiables at ang 4.3 porsyento na undecided votes dahil ang kabuuang boto ng ilan kung pagsasama-samahin ay 17.4 percent lamang.
“Her total would be 44 percent, and even that is still not enough! BBM should lose 7% of his voters, and that 7% should be transferred only to VP Leni. Unless there is a BBM voter erosion, Leni would never win this election,” sabi pa ng SPLAT.