By Nelson Celis | The Manila Times
Second of a series
IN the first part of this series, we learned about the Commission on Elections’ (Comelec) delisting of thousands and millions of registered voters and the corresponding reasons behind why they were delisted. On the other hand, current and former Comelec insiders shared their views about major issues of non-delisting. In this article, let’s take the views of outsiders on how they view non-delisting.
Several weeks before the 2010 elections, Kontra Daya said the voters’ list for the May polls was padded by five million while the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting reported that there were more than 40,000 double registrants. To facilitate the cleansing of the voters’ list then, the Comelec planned on creating a webpage called “Alma’s Death List” where the public could report deaths. This could have been a good move in 2010 but still not too late to implement this year for the 2022 elections. “Alma” is the Spanish word for soul.
There’s one outsider whose point of view could be something that we all should ponder on. Let’s take note that the Comelec recently delisted around 6.3 million voters for failure to vote in the last two consecutive elections. Whether it is a coincidence or not, Dr. Gil Ramos presented his thesis to a webinar last year that the Comelec’s voters’ list is padded by 6.3 million. See the accompanying table for his simple mathematical analysis.
Let me quote Ramos on what he had shared with me and as also posted in his Facebook account:
“Even if it was done with self-serving intentions, the FVR purge of the 1995 voters list gave us relatively normal voter registries in the elections of 1998 and 2001. We can now use the interval between the elections of 1998 and 2001 as a benchmark in comparing what happened to the growth of the voters’ lists in the years between the elections of 2013 to 2016 as well as in the intervening years between 2016 and 2019.
The table shows that the low estimate for vote padding in 2019 was 12.8 million with a corresponding high estimate of 14.7 million for that election year.
History of vote-padding
In 2016, although the level changes in population and registered voters from 2013 showed that none or just minimal padding of the election registry happened under the Andy ‘angry bird’ Bautista Comelec; the minimum estimate of padded votes for that year stood at 5.8 million with a corresponding high estimate of 7.1 million. The figures mentioned here are explained in detail in previous postings related to the history of vote padding in our elections from 1987 to 2019. The Bautista Comelec failed to correct the vote padding that occurred from 2004 to 2013 which saw padded votes in the registry rising to a high of 7.2 million in 2013 under the Sixto Brillantes Comelec. It was the Ben Abalos Comelec that reintroduced vote padding of the registry with a vengeance for the election year 2004, which effectively reversed the cleanup process done by FVR in 1998. The watch of Abalos, Melo, Brillantes, Bautista and now, Abbas as chairmen of the Comelec were years where padded votes proliferated in our election registry.
Focusing on the year 2019, we see here that during the Abbas watch alone, an additional 7 million ghost voters were added to the registry on top of the existing padded votes already in the registry in 2016. Verifiable published data on population growth projections, actual recorded data on registered voters from the Comelec itself, sustains this factual conclusion.
The stable ratios of registered voters to population levels, actual registrants to age-qualified registrants, and the corresponding delta or change ratios of these data points went haywire in the run-up from 2016 to the May 13, 2019 elections. The registered voters-to-population ratio stood at 0.4642 in 1987 and moved upward glacially after 14 years to 0.4672 in 2001. Projecting this same movement forward another 14 years, this ratio would just be 0.4702 by the year 2015. Projecting this further another 14 years, this ratio will stand at 0.4732 by the year 2029. Yet in 2019, ten years before 2029, the Abbas Comelec shows a registered-voters-to-population ratio already at 0.5899.
What happened to the ratio of registered-voters-to-population levels also happened to the actual registrants to age-qualified registrant ratio under the Abbas Comelec. This registrant effort ratio stood at 0.6827 in 1987. After 11 years it moved up to 0.686 in 1998. Projecting this glacial 11-year growth forward another 11 years we arrive at a ratio of 0.6893 in the year 2009. Projecting this for another 11 years in a straight-line trend we get 0.6926 in the year 2020. But in 2019, the Abbas Comelec showed a ratio for this stable relationship already at 0.8629.
The blatant vote padding anomaly done under the Abbas Comelec can immediately be gleaned from the fact that while expected growth in age qualified registrants for the interval from 2016 to 2019 was just 2.2 million, the growth of registered voters for that interval was recorded at 9.3 million clearly indicating that 7.1 million padded votes were added to the election registry in Abbas’ watch.
Compared to Abbas in this regard, the notorious Andy ‘angry bird’ Bautista looks like a saint. Expected growth of registrants in the period from 2013 to 2016 was pegged by the stable structural ratios at 2.7 million and the increase in registered voters for the period was just 2.1 million. This indicated that Bautista may have made the effort to clean up the registry list of dying voters during his watch. But Bautista never touched the 7 million padded votes that were already in the election registry in 2013. And these padded votes may have figured prominently in the cheating operation staged by the Comelec/ Smartmatic syndicates for Leni Robredo thus depriving Bongbong Marcos of a legitimate win a vice president.
The more disconcerting ratios that are revealed in the 2019 data are all red- flagged for that interval column. How can the change in registered voters to the change in population ratio stand at 202 percent, i.e., meaning that the increase in registered voters was more than twice the increase in population. Comparing this ratio to the normal interval between the 1998 and 2001 elections, this delta ratio then stood at 0.4792 — almost mimicking the corresponding level ratio at 0.4673 (stock/flow analysis commonly used in financial accounting). Even if we concede that the 2019 level ratio of 0.5899 is correct (which is not the case), the delta ratio of 202 percent is grossly inconsistent with 58.99 percent (level and delta ratios or stock and flow ratios should be consistent with each other or close in value to each other). The same analysis and conclusion apply to the registrant effort ratios which stood at 0.8629 level ratio and 2.9712 flow ratio. Aside from the fact that the normal interval between the 1998 and 2001 elections show that these ratios should be close to 0.66871 and 0.7034 respectively, 86.29 percent is grossly inconsistent with 297.12 percent.
Implications and consequences
Now that we have empirically shown beyond reasonable doubt that our election registries were grossly padded in the millions with ghost voters for both the 2016 and 2019 elections, what then are the implications and consequences of these findings. The mainstream media and government ‘de facto’ institutions can continue to ignore these facts only up to a point. The truth will come out and we just have to deal with the resultant consequences.
First, all elective mandates acquired in the 2016 and 2019 elections are now open to challenge. In effect we have a ‘de facto’ set of tribunes elected illegitimately rather than a legit ‘de jure’ set.
Second, it has been shown that all our institutions set in place to prevent these election padding anomalies from happening have grossly failed the people. (oversight committees of Congress, Supreme Court, etc.).
Third, President Duterte as commander in chief of the armed forces can declare a ‘temporary’ constitutional protectorate or a revolutionary government under the protector of the people clauses of the Constitution to correct these election anomalies and nobody will have the legitimate elective mandate to defy such a decision.
Fourth, if President Duterte does not move, somebody from the military establishment, whether retired or in active duty, who can muster enough support from the active-duty members of the armed services and with complementary support from a significant segment of the citizenry who are tired of these persistent election shenanigans election after election, can invoke the same protector of the people clauses of the Constitution to declare a revolutionary government. When this happens, nobody will have any true elective mandate from the impaired electoral exercises that occurred in 2016 and 2019 to oppose such a development.
Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus.
Let us see what happens now!”
And on his final analysis about the coincidental 6.3-million figure:
“The 6.3 million was the outright padding that the Abbas Comelec did between 2016 to 2019. The table I constructed showed that while the population increased by 4.58 million in that interval, the registered voters increased by 9.3 million. Decomposing the 4.58 million by the cohorts proportion that are 18 years and above and thus eligible to register (about 64 percent), we get expected new eligible registrants from the population increase at 2.9 million. Deducting this number from the 9.3 million, we get a surplus of unjustified increase in voters of 6.3 million. So, the 6.3 million recent delisting of Comelec just accounted for the anomaly between 2016 and 2019. How about the other interval election years where padding also in the millions happened? Since these accumulated padded voters add up to my minimum estimate of 12.8 million padded voters in 2019, if we add the interval years ending in 2004 (4.1 million) and the interval ending in 2007 (2.3 million), we arrive at an accumulated total of 12.7 million padded voters in 2019, which is sustained by the more comprehensive demographic analysis I did in another table. The padding that occurred in 1992 and in 1995 can be ignored in the accumulation because this illegal insertions were purged in the FVR clean-up of 1998 for his Pirma initiative. This addition to the text of the article will show the consistency in the different tables that are attached to the article.”
In Part 3, let’s figure out the effect of the ComeLeak hacking incident in the voters’ list few weeks before the 2016 elections.
(To be continued)