Only a ‘black swan’ can stop the victory of BBM—political analyst

4 May 2022

FOR political analyst Edmund Tayao, only a ‘black swan’ can prevent the impending victory of presidential frontrunner Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr., in the May 9, 2022 national polls.

Black swan is a metaphor based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans “did not exist.”

In an interview over ANC, Tayao said that based on the result of the surveys, Marcos who is number 7 in Comelec official ballot,  and his running mate Inday Sara Duterte are the sure winners in the presidential and vice-presidential elections.

“I was asked several times on what could be the reason (to change the outcome of elections), the answer there is a “black swan.” I mean something that is unexpected. I can just hope and pray that if there will be a black swan, it will not be as disturbing,” Tayao said.

Just like other objective political experts, Tayao believes that Marcos will win by huge margin against his closest rival, Leni Robredo.

“If our reference, and the only reference we have is the survey, it seems that the vice president will really have to settle in the second place,” the political analyst noted.

Last Monday, Marcos, who is number 7 in the official ballot, scored 56 percent voter preference in the last Pulse Asia survey conducted with 2, 400 respondents in April 16- 21.

Marcos also obtained 56 percent voter preference in the March survey of Pulse Asia and stayed the huge leader in the presidential derby with 33 percentage lead against Robredo who only scored 23 percent, a drop of one percent compared to her 24 percent voter preference last March.

Manny Pacquiao is in distant third with seven percent, while Isko Moreno, dropped to number four position with four percent, and Ping Lacson in fifth with two percent.

“This has been the trend all along since the filing of candidacy. I don't remember any instance, not any other candidate, not VP Leni, Not Mayor Isko, Not Manny Pacquaio led in the surveys,” Tayao stressed.

“It’s quite unprecedented because it’s difficult to just compare the current survey to all previous elections considering that it’s a first time that a frontrunner would net more than 50 percent of all the respondents,” he added.

Tayao also debunked the statement of some camps discrediting the credibility of the survey firms in the country.

“In all the elections that we had, I don’t remember any other reference that we use to determine who may have an edge or who has an advantage in a particular area or region, other than the surveys,” he explained.

“It’s quite interesting that we did that in every election and those who didn’t make it in the survey numbers always questioned the methodology and the validity of the surveys,” Tayao lamented.

“If we go back in all the previous elections, the results of the elections always have been consistent with the numbers in the survey” he insisted.

Tayao also pointed out that the basis of support can be seen in surveys and not in the political rallies of the candidate.

“Many of those attending the rallies are also the ones attending previous rallies. So, it’s difficult to determine whether the massive attendance represent the support of a particular candidate in the particular area where the rally is being held,” Tayao also said.

With less than a week before the elections, Tayao is convinced that Marcos will win the elections even if some candidates will back out from the race.

“All the tailenders, even if you put the numbers together will not be enough to unseat or to overcome the lead of the frontrunner,” Tayao stressed.

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FILIPINO VERSION

“BLACK SWAN” NA LAMANG ANG PIPIGIL SA PANALO NI BBM—POLITICAL ANALYST

PARA sa political analyst na si Edmund Tayao, “black swan” na lamang ang maaaring makapigil sa napipintong pagkapanalo ni presidential frontrunner Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr., sa darating na halalan sa Mayo 9.

Ang ‘black swan’ ay isang metaphor o matandang kasabihan na itinuturing na ang ‘black swan’ ay hindi nag-e-exist o “hindi mangyayari.”

Sa panayam sa ANC, sinabi ni Tayao na kung pagbabasehan ang mga resulta ng survey, si Marcos, na numero 7 sa official ballot ng Comelec, at kanyang running mate na si Inday Sara Duterte ay nakasisiguro na ang panalo sa darating na halalan sa Lunes.

“I was asked several times on what could be the reason (kung magbabago pa ba ang outcome ng eleksyon), the answer there is a “black swan.” I mean something that is unexpected. I can just hope and pray that if there will be a black swan, it will not be as disturbing,” ani Tayao.

Katulad ng ibang mga eksperto sa pulitika, naniniwala rin si Tayao na malaki ang ilalamang ni Marcos sa kanyang pinakamalapit na katunggali na si Leni Robredo.

“If our reference, and the only reference we have is the survey, it seems that the vice president will really have to settle in the second place,” anang political analyst.

Nito lamang Lunes, umiskor si Marcos ng 56 percent voter preference sa pinakahuling Pulse Asia survey na isinagawa sa 2, 400 respondents nitong Abril 16- 21.

Nakakuha rin si Marcos ng 56 porsyento sa survey ng Pulse Asia nitong Marso at napanatili nito ang 33 porsyentong kalamangan kay Robredo na umiskor lamang ng 23 porsyento nitong Abril, o mas mababa ng isang puntos kumnpara sa kanyang 24 voter preference nitong Marso.

Nasa malayong pangatlo si Manny Pacquiao na nakakuha ng pitong porsyento, habang si Isko Moreno na sumadsad sa pang-apat na pwesto ay nakakuha ng apat na porsyento at si Ping Lacson naman ay nanatili sa ika-limang pwesto na mayroong dalawang porsyento.

“This has been the trend all along since the filing of candidacy. I don’t remember any instance, not any other candidate, not VP Leni, not Mayor Isko, not Manny Pacquaio (ever) led in the surveys,” paliwanag ni Tayao.

“It’s quite unprecedented because it’s difficult to just compare the current survey to all previous elections considering that it’s a first time that a frontrunner would net more than 50 percent of all the respondents,” dagdag pa niya.

Binara rin ni Tayao ang mga pahayag ng ilang kampo na kumukwestiyon sa kredibilidad ng mga survey company sa bansa.

“In all the elections that we had, I don’t remember any other reference that we use to determine who may have an edge or who has an advantage in a particular area or region, other than the surveys,” saad ni Tayao.

“It’s quite interesting that we did that in every election and those who didn’t make it in the survey numbers always questioned the methodology and the validity of the surveys,” puna pa ng political analyst.

“If we go back in all the previous elections, the results of the elections always have been consistent with the numbers in the survey” giit niya.

Iginiit pa ni Tayao na survey lamang ang dapat pagbasehan ng suporta at hindi ang mga political rally ng mga kandidato.

“Many of those attending the rallies are also the ones attending previous rallies. So, it’s difficult to determine whether the massive attendance represent the support of a particular candidate in the particular area where the rally is being held,” Tayao also said.

Wala ng isang linggo ang halalan, kumbinsido si Tayao na mananalo si Marcos kahit pa may umatras na mga kandidato sa karera.

“All the tailenders, even if you put the numbers together will not be enough to unseat or to overcome the lead of the frontrunner,” Aniya.

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