Manila Standard : Publicus official sees 80% firm backers for BBM, Sara

27 April 2022

By Manila Standard

With barely two weeks before the May 9 national elections, PUBLiCUS Asia said at least 80 percent of the supporters of presidential aspirant Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and his running mate Sara Duterte-Carpio are already hard voters who have made up their minds and will surely vote for the tandem.

PUBLiCUS chief data scientist Dr. David Barua Yap Jr. said Tuesday both Marcos and Duterte-Carpio have registered increases in their voters’ preference rating.

At least 57 percent of the 1,500 registered Filipino voters who participated in the PAHAYAG National Tracker: April Survey chose Marcos as their presidential bet.

Duterte-Carpio also continued to lead the vice-presidential race, with 59 percent of the vote among respondents.
“As Election Day nears, we firm up our support. We firm up our preferences, we become more and more committed to the choices that we have made thus far. So, I think that this is symptomatic of that particular common occurrence among voters that as Election Day nears, they become more and more convinced of who they are voting for,” Yap said.

“If we look more closely at the numbers, the share of the very firm BBM voters rose from 70 percent in February to 80 percent in late April. Similarly, the share of very firm Sara voters rose from 75 percent in February to 80 percent in late April,” he added.

Vice President Leni Robredo’s presidential preference numbers in pre-election surveys, on the other hand, have consistently hovered between 20 to 23 percent between October 2021 and the third week of April 2022.

The latest survey showed 21 percent of the respondents saying they would vote for Robredo.

Respondents to the non-commissioned Publicus nationwide purposive sampling survey were randomly drawn by the Singapore office of American firm PureSpectrum from its market research panel of over 200,000 Filipinos.

The final survey panel was restricted to registered voters. Parameters based on respondent age, gender, and location were also utilized in the sample formulation in order for the resulting sample to conform more closely to the features of the voting population, as defined by statistics from the Commission on Elections.

The nationwide margin of error is +/- 3 percent.

Marcos Jr. maintained his wide lead over other candidates with less than three weeks before the May 9 elections, results of the latest pre-election survey conducted by PUBLiCUS between April 19 to 21 showed.

Marcos’ voters’ preference rating was two percentage points higher than his 55 percent in the March 9 to 14 survey of PUBLiCUS.

“Marcos is the only presidential candidate who has notched a statistically significant increase in voter preference during the campaign period. He has gained 5 percentage points over the past two months after notching an initial preference share of 52 percent in our February survey,” said Aureli Sinsuat, Executive Director of PUBLiCUS.

Vice President Leni Robredo’s presidential preference numbers, on the other hand, have consistently hovered between 20 to 23 percent in the six pre-election surveys conducted by PUBLiCUS between October 2021 and the third week of April 2022.

The latest survey showed 21 percent of the respondents saying they would vote for Robredo.

Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio also continued to lead the vice-presidential race, with 59 percent of the vote among respondents.

Sinsuat said Duterte-Carpio has also notched a significant 5 percentage point increase in voter preference since the second week of February when she earned a preference share of 54 percent.

Senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan and Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III are statistically tied for second place after notching preference shares of 15 percent and 9 percent, respectively.