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Manila Standard : Leni loses ground

News & Interviews
29 December 2021

By Tony Lopez | Manila Standard

“Their decision to give their support to Marcos indicates that they see him as a symbol of hope.”

Four months before the May 9, 2022 presidential elections, Vice President Leni Robredo appears headed toward a disastrous defeat.

In survey after survey, the disparate opposition’s presidential candidate will be voted, at best, by no more than 20 percent of Filipino voters.

The latest results show former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. will dominate the May 2022 presidential derby in all areas in the country and all social classes.

More than half, or 54 percent to be exact, per the OCTA Research Survey of Dec. 7-12, 2021, will choose Marcos Jr.

Robredo will get just 14 percent, in the OCTA poll which involved 1,200 respondents interviewed face to face.

A vote of 54 percent against 14 percent is a margin of 40 percentage points, equivalent to 24 million votes – 32.4 million for Marcos and only 8.4 million for Robredo, assuming 60 million cast their vote in May. Where Robredo will get that many votes – 24 million – to catch up with Marcos will be a constant source of wonder for her strategists.

With OCTA’s +/-3 percent margin of error, it is possible Manila Mayor Isko Moreno will even beat Robredo and place second to Marcos. The same poll showed that if Marcos were disqualified, it would not mean voters would choose Leni for president.

Moreno is the overwhelming second choice for president.

Robredo has a 14 percent share or 8.4 million votes, two percentage points or 1.2 million votes ahead of Moreno’s 12 percent or 7.2 million votes. Add the 3 percent error margin (or 1.8 million votes) to the Manila mayor’s 12 percent and you get 15 percent or 9 million, exceeding Robredo’s 8.4 million possible votes.

In the OCTA poll, Isko beats Robredo in the economic class ABC, 14 percent vs. 9 percent, and in the economic class E, 23 percent vs. Robredo’s 11 percent.

Moreno will also beat Robredo in the NCR 20 percent vs. 7 percent, and is breathing down the veep in the Visayas 15 percent to her 17 percent. He is tied with her in Mindanao, with an identical 8 percent.

Only in Balance of Luzon (BL) does Robredo beat Moreno in the major regions – 17 percent vs. 10 percent. Metro Manila has 7.3 million registered voters, while the Balance of Luzon has 27 million voters.

Moreno’s is a much more compelling story than Robredo. He is an authentic rags-to-success story, having foraged garbage bins for food and income to become hizzoner of the Philippines’ most famous city.

Leni is practically a non-entity to the masses. They don’t know her. Nor could they relate to her ever-changing messaging.

Leni seems to have been so finely packaged (she has even been likened to the Virgin Mary) that people have no idea who she really is.

In the OCTA survey, Bongbong Marcos won in all economic classes – 63 percent from ABC, 55 percent from D, and 46 percent from economic class E. Robredo had only 9 percent in ABC, 15 percent in D, and 11 percent in E classes.

The 54 percent OCTA rate for Marcos is consistent with his 53 percent of Pulse Asia survey of Dec. 1-6, 2021, 58 percent of Laylo Research on Nov. 22-29, 2021, and 47 percent of Social Weather Stations in October 2021. Average score of Marcos in the four surveys: 53 percent. More than 50 of every 100 voters want Bongbong to be their president.

In contrast, Leni Robredo managed only 14 percent in OCTA, 20 percent in Pulse Asia, 13 percent in Laylo, and 18 percent in SWS, for an average of 16.25 percent, or one of every six voters voting for her if elections were held today.

In the OCTA survey, Isko Moreno received 12 percent, Manny Pacquiao has 10 percent, while Panfilo Lacson has 5 percent.

The same survey showed Marcos winning in the National Capital Region with 37 percent vs. Robredo’s 7 percent, and in Luzon, 57 percent, Visayas 50 percent, and Mindanao, where he outclassed Robredo 63 percent vs. 8 percent.

Class E, according to the Marcos camp, are those with no homes, eke out a hand-to-mouth existence, and with no assurance where to get their next meal.

Class E are mostly informal settlers who do not have a stable source of income and often rely on government dole-outs to survive.

They are the majority of voters and their decision to give their support to Marcos indicates that they see him as a symbol of hope.

Even the Class D, the working class support Marcos, with 55 percent. About 63 percent of the upper and middle class ABC will vote for the son and namesake of the late longest serving president.

In the vice presidential race, per OCTA, Davao Mayor Sara Duterte is also a runaway winner if the polls were held today with her 50 percent mark, as opposed to her closest pursuer Sen. Vicente Sotto III, who received 33 percent of the votes.

Mayor Duterte also validated her claim of dominance in Mindanao after she registered 71 percent preference, as compared to Sotto’s 17 percent. In the socio-economic class, Inday Sara consistently held her ground with 61 percent in the ABC Class, 41 percent in the D Class, and 58 percent in the E Class.

The latest OCTA Research survey results confirmed and reinforced the previous polls by SWS, Publicus, Kalye Survey, DZRH, RMN, and Pulse Asia, among others, showing Marcos pulling away.

Marcos said that while he is honored and humbled with the positive response from the people, the BBM-Sara UniTeam will not be complacent and will continue to push for a unifying leadership, which he said is the only way for the country to get back on its feet after the debilitating pandemic.