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Manila Standard : Bongbong, Sara top 'Pahayag' survey, post over 50% lead

News & Interviews
20 November 2021

By Rey E. Requejo | Manila Standard

If the recent independent and non-commissioned survey on preferred presidential and vice presidential candidates would be the basis, the presidential tandem of Ferdinand “'Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. and Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio would be the team to beat in next year’s national elections.

In the Pahayag Final List survey, which Publicus Asia Inc. conducted from November 16 to November 18, a day after the substitution deadline, Marcos led across all regional groups with 56.7 percent compared to Leni Robredo's 15.4 percent mark and Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso Moreno's 6.9 percent.

Behind them are Senators Bong Go, 4.1 percent, Manny Pacquiao, 3.0 percent, and Panfilo Lacson, 2.9 percent.

Marcos held a commanding lead across all regional groups, maintaining his widest lead in North Central Luzon at 60.3 percent and Mindanao 70 percent.

The lead was narrowest in the National Capital Region and South Luzon, where Robredo polled above the 20 percent mark. Moreno was at third with seven percent and Go at four percent, consistent with his previous numbers from earlier surveys conducted by Publicus.

Comparatively speaking, Marcos posted a seven percent gain from his previous numbers, polling around 49 percent.

Meanwhile, Robredo dropped by six percent because of lower scores in South Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. She maintained her numbers in NCR and SL.

Marcos also recorded the highest votes among respondents unlikely to change their preference, with at least 80 percent maintaining they would definitely not change their choice.

Robredo posted similar numbers, with close to 60 percent of respondents indicating that they are set with their choice and another 18 percent indicating that they will likely not change their preference.

The other candidates polling on or above the three percent mark notched markedly lower "firmness" shares than Marcos and Robredo.

However, the conversion may prove difficult for many who have chosen a particular candidate. Across all candidates, most of those who are not viewed as "firm" in their choice indicated that they are 50-50 at best – rather than inclined to switch, suggesting that conversion may prove difficult moving forward.

In the vice presidential poll, Duterte-Carpio was leading with 54 percent over the rest of the field across all regions, incredibly massive in Mindanao, her bailiwick.

Her lead, however, was narrowest in NCR and SL.

Senate President Vicente "Tito" Sotto III was in second place at 10 percent, a sizable drop from his numbers in recent surveys.

The decline in Sotto's numbers placed him in a virtual tie with Sen. Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan and Willie "Doc Willie" Ong – with all three polling close to 10 percent.

At least 42 percent of respondents indicated that they are either “Indifferent to tandems or Prefer Split Tickets."

The majority (around 58 percent) indicated that they would prefer that their presidential and vice presidential picks belonged to a tandem.

Around 42 percent chose the BBM-SARA Uniteam tandem, which is very popular in Mindanao (58 percent) and lowest in SL (30 percent).

The Pahayag Final List is a nationwide purposive sampling survey comprising 1,500 respondents from a market research panel of over 200,000 Filipinos maintained by the Singapore office of a US-based firm Purespectrum.

The sample was restricted to registered voters, and the distribution was guided by parameters based on age, gender, and regional voter population statistics from the Commission on Elections.