By Joyce Pangco PañaresandRey E. Requejo | Manila Standard
Still top OCTA survey to replicate wide leads in Pulse, Publicus, Laylo
With three days to go before the May 9 national elections, presidential aspirant Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. maintained his wide lead over his rivals with a 58 percent voter preference rating in the final survey of OCTA Research.
The survey, also likely the last to be released by major polling firms ahead of Monday’s elections, was conducted from April 22 to 25 with a sample size of 2,400 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 2 percent.
Marcos gained one percentage point from his 57-percent voter preference rating in OCTA’s April 2 to 6 survey.
His closest rival, Vice President Leni Robredo, logged 25 percent, followed by Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” with 8 percent, Sen. Manny Pacquiao with 5 percent, and Sen. Panfilo “Ping” Lacson with 2 percent.
Marcos was the top pick across all geographical areas (National Capital Region, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao), socio-economic classes (ABC, D and E), and age groups.
His running mate, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, likewise retained her dominance in the vice-presidential preference poll with 56 percent, one percentage point lower from OCTA’s April 2 to 6 survey.
At second place was Sen. Vicente Sotto III with 22 percent, Sen. Francis Pangilinan with 16 percent, Doc Willie Ong with 4 percent, and Lito Atienza with 1 percent.
Like Marcos, Duterte-Carpio was also the top pick across all geographical areas (National Capital Region, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao), socio-economic classes (ABC, D and E), and age groups.
Given the survey’s margin of error of +/-2 percent, the senatorial candidates that made it to the winning circle are Raffy Tulfo (63 percent), Mark Villar (55 percent), Loren Legarda (51 percent), Miguel Zubiri (49 percent), Francis Escudero (46 percent), Robin Padilla (44 percent), Alan Cayetano (40 percent), Sherwin Gatchalian (39 percent), Joey Villanueva (36 percent), Jinggoy Estrada (33 percent), and JV Ejercito, Risa Hontiveros and Jojo Binay at 31 percent each.
According to Marcos spokesman Vic Rodriguez, the OCTA survey was a “most welcome” development.
“Our internal target remains the same —to reach 70 percent. If the number of respondents will increase, I’m sure—I’ve seen the trajectory of BBM and Sara— it’s still on an upward trend and there’s a chance that we will be able to meet our 70 percent target come election day,” Rodriguez said.
OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David, in an interview with CNN, said it was “mathematically still possible” for changes to happen on May 9.
“We do not want to declare a winner based on survey results –otherwise, why should people vote? There are people who decide on the day itself. Sometimes, the outcome can be surprising,” he said.
“So, we are not saying the fight is over. Let us go out and vote,” David added.
Marcos and Duterte-Carpio have been consistently topping pre-election surveys, including the latest from Pulse Asia this week where the former senator logged a 56-percent voters preference rating while the Davao City mayor had 55 percent.
Robredo took the second spot in the April 16 to 21 Pulse Asia survey, followed by Pacquiao, Domagoso, and Lacson.
At second spot in the vice-presidential race was Sotto, followed by Pangilinan, Ong, Manny Lopez and Atienza.
In the Laylo Research survey conducted from April 14 to 20, Marcos saw his rating climb to 64 percent, up by three percentage points from his March rating, giving him a 43-point lead over Robredo.
The influential Iglesia Ni Cristo, which counts at least two million voting members, earlier this week endorsed the UniTeam tandem of Marcos and Duterte-Carpio.