By Ryan Ponce Pacpaco | Journal News Online
SURVEY firm Pulse Asia Research, Inc. indicated that the only way for opponents of presidential front-runner Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos, Jr. to catch up is for his poll ratings to plummet dramatically, but the chances of that happening are not very likely or probable.
Pulse Asia has been correctly predicting the outcomes of national elections, especially the presidency since 1992.
In an interview with ANC on Tuesday, Pulse Asia executive director Ana Tabunda refused to categorically declare that the results of the elections are already a foregone conclusion with Marcos as the ultimate victor.
She, however, explained that if Marcos’ lead at this point in time was just at around 5%, then his opponents would have fair chances of overtaking him.
Unfortunately for his rivals, results of Pulse Asia’s latest Pulso ng Bayan pre-electoral national survey conducted from February 18 to 23, 2022, showed Marcos further solidifying his lead by posting a 60% voter preference.
His number is 45% higher than his closest rival Leni Robredo, who posted 15% followed by Isko Domagoso with 10%, Manny Pacquiao with 8%, and Ping Lacson with 2%.
The Pulse Asia survey also showed Marcos’ continued dominance in all major voting areas, where he even gained more support in most of the locations.
In the National Capital Region (NCR), he posted a 66% voter preference, a jump of 9% percent from 57% in January of this year.
Marcos’ voter preference of 68% in Mindanao also showed a 2% increase, up from 66% in January 2022.
Meanwhile, Marcos’ voter preference in other areas remained ironclad, with 58% in Balanced Luzon and 53% in Mindanao.
Pressed if Pulse Asia was reinforcing a conclusion in people’s minds about Marcos’ imminent victory, Tabunda said they are standing by with their data and methodology.
She also practically doused cold water on the hopes of Marcos’ rivals that the recent turnouts in their rallies could help turn the tide in their favor. However, she explained that the possibility of this happening seemed dim.
“It’s not impossible but the margin is too huge,” Tabunda stated.
She likewise affirmed that it is highly likely that Robredo’s number has already been capped which explained why she was still at 15 % in the latest survey.
“Statistically speaking if they are only five percentage points away from him … that would be easier to overtake him. It’s not impossible but the probability is not large. The probability of that happening is not large,” Tabunda said.
Tabunda added that reaching that turning point would only be possible if a drastic 20-point drop in Marcos’ poll numbers occurred.
“If he drops 20 points, the others will get those 20 points, so they will have a better chance,” Tabunda pointed out.
Tabunda also noted that this is the first time Pulse Asia has seen a “majority percentage” of respondents choosing only one candidate, which only confirms that Marcos has “captured the imagination” of a large percentage of the voters.
She noted that his lead was “more than double” President Rodrigo Duterte’s lead over his nearest rival in 2016, when he only got 39.4 percent versus Grace Poe’s 21.8 percent in April 2016.
The Pulse Asia survey also showed that the ‘Solid North’ voting bloc’s support for him is intact and unaffected by claims from Robredo’s camp that cracks are emerging.
Marcos garnered 74% in CAR, 82% in Region 1, and 86% in Region 2.
On the other hand, Robredo only had 1% in CAR, 7% In Region 1, and 6% in Region 2, clearly showing that she is failing to gain double-digit support from areas comprising the ‘Solid North.’
The latest Pulse Asia survey also showed that the people’s voice will always prevail against negative campaigning and that mudslinging does not and will not work against the UniTeam presidential bet. With Blessie Amor Vicente and Joanne Rosario (OJTs)