Bongbong's 56% overshadows Leni's 23% in latest pre-election survey

8 April 2022

PRESIDENTIAL frontrunner Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos, Jr. further reinforced his dominance over his rivals in the upcoming 2022 polls by posting a 56% voter preference in the latest pre-election survey by PUBLiCUS Asia.

With barely a month before the May 2022 national elections, political observers noted that the UniTeam presidential bet is on the cusp of being the first majority president to be elected in a multi-party political system.

Marcos' voter preference in the PAHAYAG 2022 First Quarter Survey shows a massive 33 percentage points lead over his closest contender for the presidency.

The independent and non-commissioned survey was conducted by one of the most reputable polling firms in the country, PUBLiCUS Asia, from March 30, 2022 to April 6, 2022, utilizing 1,500 respondents.

Still trailing behind Marcos by a wide margin is Leni Robredo with 23% voter preference, followed by Isko Moreno with 9%, Sen. Panfilo Lacson with 5%, and Sen. Manny Pacquiao with 2%.

The PAHAYAG survey results also indicate that support for Marcos' candidacy continues to firm up among the Filipino electorate despite the slew of negative propaganda directed at him.

Marcos also posted overwhelming numbers in major geographical locations; 45% in the National Capital Region (NCR), 57% in North Central Luzon (NCL), 46% in South Luzon (SL), and 56% in the Visayas, and 71% in Mindanao.

The survey results also noted Marcos' staggering lead in voter preference over Robredo in North Central Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao remains well above 30%, attesting to her failure to sway voters despite her camp's claim of a 'groundswell' of support for her candidacy.

Marcos's genuine message of unity also resonates with Filipino voters from the D and E economic classes, such that he received 57% and 60% voter preference, respectively.

When asked about the probability of Marcos' rivals catching up with him,  PUBLiCUS Asia chief data scientist David Yap, Jr.,  said that he ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to forecast the probable outcome.

 "I ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations based on existing survey data from PUBLiCUS, Pulse Asia, Laylo, and OCTA... These 10,000 simulations strongly suggest that Bongbong Marcos is expected to win in the upcoming elections," Yap said.

According to a definition from IBM, a Monte Carlo Simulation, also known as multiple probability simulation, is a mathematical technique used to estimate the possible outcomes of an uncertain event.

PUBLiCUS Asia's survey results tally with Pulse Asia's recently published pre-election survey, showing that Marcos' numbers are steady, making catching up with him very difficult.

"Theoretically, kaya pero mahirap. But realistically mahirap. Hindi sinabing imposible," Pulse Asia Research Director Ana Maria Tabunda said.

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FILIPINO VERSION

56% ni Bongbong sa PUBLiCUS survey inilampaso ang 23% ni Leni

PINATIBAY ni presidential frontrunner Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos, Jr. ang kanyang patuloy na pagdomina sa kanyang mga karibal sa darating na 2022 elections sa pamamagitan ng pagrehistro ng 56% voter preference sa pinakabagong pre-election survey ng PUBLiCUS Asia.

Halos isang buwan bago ang pambansang halalan sa Mayo 9, 2022, napipintong maging kauna-unahang majority president si Marcos sa ilalim ng isang multi-party na sistemang pampulitika.

Ang voter preference ni Marcos sa PAHAYAG 2022 First Quarter Survey ay nagpakita ng napakalaking 33 percentage points na agwat sa kanyang pinakamalapit na katunggali para sa pagkapangulo.

Ang independent at non-commissioned survey ay isinagawa ng isa sa mga pinaka-respetadong survey firms sa bansa, ang PUBLiCUS Asia, mula Marso 30, 2022 hanggang Abril 6, 2022 na nilahukan  ng 1,500 respondents.

Malayong pangalawa pa rin kay Marcos si Leni Robredo na may 23% voter preference, at sinusundan ni Isko Moreno na may 9%, Sen. Panfilo Lacson na may 5%, at Sen. Manny Pacquiao na may 2%.

Ang resulta ng PAHAYAG survey ay nagpapahiwatig na lalong tumitibay ang suporta ng mga botanteng Pilipino sa kandidatura ni Marcos sa kabila ng sari-saring negatibong propaganda na pinupukol sa kanya.

Nagtala din si Marcos ng matataas na numero sa mga pangunahing lokasyon sa bansa; 45% sa National Capital Region (NCR), 57% sa North Central Luzon (NCL), 46% sa South Luzon (SL), 56% sa Visayas (VIS), at 71% sa Mindanao (MIN).

Kapansin-pansin din ang napakalaking kalamangan ni Marcos kay Robredo sa North Central Luzon, Visayas, at Mindanao na nananatiling higit sa 30%.  Patunay lamang ito ng kanyang kabiguan na mahikayat ang mga botante sa kabila ng pahayag ng kanyang kampo na lumalakas ang suporta sa kanyang kandidatura.

Nakita rin sa nasabing survey na tanggap ng mas nakararaming Pilipino ang panawagan ng pagkakaisa ni Marcos lalo na sa mga kabilang sa economic classes D at E kung saan nakakuha siya ng 57% at 60% na voter preference.

Nang tanungin tungkol sa posibilidad na maabutan pa si Marcos ng kanyang mga karibal, sinabi ni PUBLiCUS Asia chief data scientist David Yap, Jr. na nagsagawa siya ng 10,000 Monte Carlo simulation upang tingnan ang posibilidad nito at lumalabas na si Marcos pa rin ang mananaig.

 "I ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations based on existing survey data from PUBLiCUS, Pulse Asia, Laylo, and OCTA... These 10,000 simulations strongly suggest that Bongbong Marcos is expected to win in the upcoming elections," sabi ni Dr. Yap.

Ayon sa isang depinisyon mula sa IBM, ang Monte Carlo Simulation, na kilala rin bilang multiple probability simulation, ay isang mathematical technique na ginagamit upang tantyahin ang mga posibleng resulta ng isang hindi tiyak na kaganapan.

Ang mga resulta ng survey ng PUBLiCUS Asia ay umaayon sa inilabas ng Pulse Asia kamakailan na nagpapakita matatag ang mga numero ni Marcos at napakahirap nang mahabol pa.

"Theoretically, kaya pero mahirap. But realistically mahirap. Hindi sinabing imposible," sambit ni Pulse Asia Research Director Ana Maria Tabunda nang mainterview ng media hinggil sa nasabing usapin.

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