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Balita : Marcos-Duterte tandem, nangunguna sa Publicus Asia survey

News & Interviews
19 November 2021

By Balita

Nangunguna sina dating Senador Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. at Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte sa presidential at vice presidential picks, ilang buwan bago ng 2022 elections, base sa ipinakitang survey ng independent at non-commissioned Publicus Asia.

Nagpoll ang Publicus Asia sa 1,500 respondents mula sa humigit-kumulang 200,000 rehistradong botante sa bansa para sa 2021 Pahayag Final List survey na isinagawa mula Nobyembre 16 hanggang 18, pagkatapos ng deadline ng substitution noong Nobyembre 15.

Sa inilabas na resulta nitong Biyernes, Nobyembre 19, nakitang si Marcos ang nangungunang presidente na may 56.7% ng total voter preference. 
Pumangalawa si Vice President Leni Robredo na may 15.4%. 

Pangatlo si Manila Mayor Isko Moreno na may 6.9% habang pang-apat naman si Senador Bong Go na may 4.1% ng total voter preference. 
Sinabi ng Publicus Asia na hawak ni Marcos ang “commanding lead” sa lahat ng regional groups– 50.3% sa Metro Manila, 60.3% sa Northern at Central Luzon, 46.2% sa Southern Luzon, 547% sa Visayas, at 70% sa Mindanao.

“His lead is widest in NCL (Northern and Central Luzon) and MIN (Mindanao). It is narrowest in NCR (National Capital Region) and SL (Southern Luzon)–where Vice President Ma. Leonor “Leni” Robredo is polling above the 20 percent mark,” anang Publicus Asia.

“Upon comparing the numbers with those obtained from the Pahayag: Q3 survey, we find that BBM (Bongbong Marcos) posted a gain of around 7 percent,” dagdag pa nito.

Ayon pa sa Publicus Asia, naitala kay Marcos ang highest share ng respondents na tiyak na hindi nila babaguhin ang kanilang pinili. 
Nasa 80% ng respondents ang pumili kay Marcos na kinukonsiderang “firm” na sa kanilang pinili.

Samantala, nangunguna si Duterte bilang top choice sa pagkabise presidente na mayroong 54.4% ng total voter preference.
Pumangalawa naman si Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III na may 10.1% ng voter preference– “a sizeable drop from his numbers in Pahayag: Q3.”

Si Sotto ay “virtual tie” kay Senador Kiko Pangilinan na may 9% at physician Willie Ong na 8.9%.

Sinabi ng Publicus Asia na si Duterte ang “most popular” choice para sa pagkabise presdiente sa lahat ng regional groups– 41.5% sa Metro Manila, 50% sa Northern at Central Luzon, 39.7% sa Southern Luzon, 55.3% sa Visayas, at 82.3% sa mindanao.

“Her lead over the rest of the field is especially massive in MIN. Her lead is narrowest in NCR and SL,” anang Publicus Asia

Ayon sa Publicus Asia si Duterte ay “registered the highest share of supporters that indicated that they will not change their choice–with three out of every four indicating that they are set on voting for her.”

“Upon considering those that are likely not going to swap candidates then the share of her “firm” voters is estimated to be around 86 percent,” dagdag pa nito.

Nakuha naman ni Pangilinan ang second-highest share ng “firm” voters na nasa 70%.

Kaugnay nito, nasa 42% ng respondents ang pumili sa Marcos-Duterte tandem.

“The popularity of this tandem is at its highest in MIN (58 percent) and at its lowest in SL (30 percent). At 2nd place is the opposition tandem of MLR-FKP (Ma. Leonor ‘Leni’ Robredo-Francis ‘Kiko’ Pangilinan) with 7 percent,” sinabi ng Publicus Asia.

“It is of note that the MLR-FKP tandem breached the double-digit mark in NCR–but polled poorly in MIN. All other tandems on offer notched sub-5 percent levels,” dagdag pa nito.